Market Report - September 2026

A Seasonal August Market as Inventory Continues to Tighten and the Foundation for Price Stabilization Strengthens

The Market May Be Establishing a Bottom

Active inventory is shrinking, forcing buyers to choose from fewer available properties. While this has not yet triggered price growth, it builds a firm floor under property values. The GTA is likely finding the bottom of the current cycle, laying the groundwork for relative balance in late 2026 and broader appreciation in 2027.

"Sellers pulled back from the market at a much faster rate than buyers, reducing available inventory and gradually improving the balance between supply and demand."

Freehold Market Insights

Freehold segments continue to outperform condos. Detached sales held steady (+0.5% YoY) and semi-detached edged up 0.9%, while townhouses fell 9.5%. Inventory remains constrained as homeowners hesitate to list without a clear move-up property secured.

Condominium Market Insights

Condo sales fell 2.6% YoY to 1,330 transactions, with average prices down 3.6% to $617,593. High carrying costs keep investors cautious, but the entry-level price point offers prospective first-time buyers strong negotiating power before confidence returns.

"Instead of asking, 'How much further could prices fall?' buyers increasingly begin asking, 'What could this property be worth two or three years from now?'"

The Confidence Gap: Why Aren't Sales Higher?

Improved affordability, lower prices, and stabilized mortgage rates have not fully un-sidelined buyers. The hesitation stems from macro uncertainty—specifically trade relations with the U.S. and geopolitical risks—rather than raw purchasing capacity. Pent-up demand remains high, awaiting economic clarity.

What Does an Average Price Below $1 Million Mean?

The average price dip to $993,410 reflects a seasonal lack of high-end summer luxury listings rather than a market crash. The real shift is psychological: buyers are transitioning from expecting further price drops to evaluating long-term potential.

Market Outlook

August was defined by supply contraction rather than a demand collapse. As inventory gets absorbed through the fall, the balance between supply and demand will continue to tighten, positioning the GTA market for long-term stabilization.